Robosense Technology shares have fallen 60.9% this year, despite a reported increase in LiDAR unit volumes and strong robotics demand in 2026. Investors who held the stock from the beginning of the year have seen their investment decline significantly, a stark contrast to the company’s business momentum.
The company’s share price began the year at HK$36.6. Analysts presented two diverging narratives for investors to consider. The optimistic view, which projected a Fair Value of HK$47.45, anticipated 51.5% annual revenue growth and profit margins reaching 13.5%. This outlook was supported by expectations of growth in robotics and smart city LiDAR, along with in-house SOC chips designed to improve gross margins.
Conversely, the cautious narrative set a Fair Value at HK$34.07. This view still allowed for 40.4% annual revenue growth and a 3.8% profit margin but highlighted concerns such as declining automotive LiDAR sales, price erosion in ADAS and robotics, and the potential for high R&D spending and customer concentration to impact earnings stability.
Robosense Technology’s first-half 2026 report showed LiDAR volumes of 719,200 units, with significant growth in robotics shipments bolstered by new SPAD SoC chipsets. This performance aligned with the optimistic predictions regarding demand and product execution. Revenue climbed from C¥455.365m in Q2 2025 to C¥560.999m in Q2 2026.
However, the company reported a deeper net loss, with its net margin worsening from -11.3% to -17.3%. This outcome did not confirm the anticipated progress on profitability presented in the bullish outlook. The core assumption that rapid volume increases and new chip technology would enhance earnings quality was thus challenged by the financial results.
The company’s current trading price is HK$14.6. The prevailing narrative suggests that Robosense Technology can leverage its proprietary SPAD-SoC chips and increased production scale to achieve stronger gross margins compared to many LiDAR competitors. This perspective assumes that the company can translate robust robotics LiDAR shipments and broad OEM design wins into sustained, profitable volume across both ADAS and robotics sectors, despite ongoing pressure on average selling prices.
Bullish analysts expect RoboSense Technology to utilize its SPAD-SoC chips and higher production scale to support a business that can earn materially stronger gross margins than many LiDAR peers over time. The primary condition for success is that RoboSense Technology converts its strong robotics LiDAR shipment growth and broad OEM design wins into sustained, profitable volume across both ADAS and robotics despite ongoing pressure on average selling prices.
The current market valuation prompts investors to believe in Robosense Technology’s ability to achieve profitable volume growth. This belief hinges on the successful conversion of strong robotics LiDAR shipments and extensive OEM design wins into sustained profitability, even amidst decreasing average selling prices.
